TEST YOURSELF, IF YOU CAN FEEL THE PULSE OF INDIAN FILM GOING AUDIENCE:

Predict outcome of following big budget films:

(EAIDC = Estimated All India Distributor Cost)

10 Week Net Gross should be 1.5 times EAIDC for distributors to break even

April 23, 04 Bardaasht *ing Bobby Deol, Lara Dutta
Budget 10cr EAIDC 6cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 7cr

April 30, 04 Main Hoon Na *ing SRK, Sush Sen, Amrita Rao
Budget 20cr EAIDC 12cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 20cr

May 7, 04 RUN *ing Abhishek, Bhumika Chawla
Budget 8cr EAIDC 5cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 7cr

May 7, 04 Lakeer *ing Sunny, Sunil Shetty, John Abrahm, Nauheed
Budget 18cr EAIDC 11cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 8cr

May 21, 04 Yuva *ing Ajay, Abhishek, Vivek, Rani, Kareena, Esha
Budget 12cr EAIDC 7.2cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 14cr

May 21, 04 Uff Kya Jaadoo Mohabbat *ing New stars (Rajshree films)
Budget ??cr EAIDC ??cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 14cr

May 28, 04 Deewar *ing Amitabh, Sanjay, Amrita Rao
Budget 20cr EAIDC 12cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 15cr

May 28, 04 Hum Tum *ing Saif, Rani, Rishi
Budget ??cr EAIDC ??cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 12cr

June 4, 04 Aan *ing Akshay, Sunill Shetty, Jackie, Lara Dutta, Raveena
Budget 15cr EAIDC 9cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 12cr

May-June, 04 Film Star *ing Mahima Choudhary
Budget ??cr EAIDC ??cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 7cr

May-June, 04 Bewafa *ing Anil, Akshay, Kareena, Sushmita Sen
Budget 15cr EAIDC 9cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 15cr

June 11, 04 Dev *ing Amitabh, Fardeen, Kareena
Budget ??cr EAIDC ??cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 15cr
(After seeing the trailor and considering ARMAAN BO Performance, now (May 3, 2004) I think, DEV's 10 week net gross will be around Rs 6 cr; Armaan was under Rs 6 cr)

June 18, 04 Lakshya *ing Amitabh, Hritik, Preity
Budget 30cr EAIDC 18cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 14cr

June 25, 04 Garv *ing Salman, Shilpa Shetty, Akanksha
Budget 15cr EAIDC 9cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 7cr


June-July, 04 Tajmahal *ing Sonya Jahan, Manisha Koirala, (Akbar Khan?s Mega Budget Film)
Budget 60cr EAIDC 36cr Predict 50** Week Net Gross = 50cr
(**allow 50 weeks to recover astronomical investment)

Aug, 04 Ab Tumhare Hawale Watan Saathiyo * (Anil Sharma?s All Star Cast Film)
Budget 25cr EAIDC 15cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 25cr


-----------------------------------

Recent 10 Week All India Net Grosses were:

All India Distributor Cost in ( )

Khakee (14.9 cr) 26.5 cr
Ab Tak Chhappan (4.75cr) 7 cr
Kismat (5.75cr) 5 cr
Plan (8.5 cr) 6.5 cr
Janasheen (8.1 cr) 11 cr
KMG (14.35 cr) 40 cr
KHNH (14.5 cr) 32 cr
Munnabhaaii MBBS (7.75 cr) 20 cr
Andaaz (8.25 cr) 22 cr
Baaghbaan (8.25cr) 23 cr
LOC (16 cr) 21 cr
The Hero (17.5 cr) 24 cr
--------------------

Scoring:

Two Categories:
Category 1:
Minus 1 point for every 10% shortfall in collections. (nearest to zero wins; Must predict for all films)

Category 2:
Plus 1 point for every 20% extra collections. (nearest to zero wins; Must predict for all films)

Rana

P.S.
To start off, I gave my predictions above.
Copy this post or use ?QUOTE? and replace with your predictions for All India Net Grosses.

Have Fun.

I think Lakshya, Main Hoon Na, and Hum Tum will do well. The rest, I don't have a guess.

SRK fans will flock to see main hoon na. I don't think RUN will do well. Yuva will do average business.

Films have not been collecting the kind of monies these so many big budget films need to recover just to break even. (These Big Films, so many of them, need to recover 5 to 10 times, just to break even, what an average film has been recovering lately. Not more than 3 or 4 films achieved that last year.)

Look at this news article:

http://sify.com/movies/bollywood/fullst ... g~scared?~

Why are the biggies running scared?

By Subhash K Jha
Friday, 16 April , 2004, 10:06

The unexpected success of Murder has triggered off a chain reaction in Bollywood. While many more small budget erotic thrillers are being planned the biggies are getting a second and third look-over.

Barring a few chosen ones like Farha Khan?s Main Hoon Na (expected to be the third ?M? titled success in a row after Murder and Masti), Gaurang Doshi?s Deewaar: Let?s Bring Our Heroes Home and Mani Ratnam?s Yuva, other multi-starrers are facing rough weather in the trade.

Reason? The box office experts feel there?s just no interest in routine-looking films with a cluster of stars lining up on both ends of the hoardings.

The first casualty of Murder is Bardaasht. The film was scheduled for this Friday but has been pushed forward by a week due to lack of interest.

Leading man Bobby Deol?s big brother Sunny isn?t sailing in a different boat. His starrer Lakeer has been repeatedly postponed for the last two months. The latest release date April 23 was pushed forward at the last minute to May 7. But now Lakeer is expected to be pushed ahead even further.

The apparent reason for the perennial postponement is the lack of viewer interest. Says Bihar distributor Roshan Singh, "Murder and Masti make more sense for the summer mood of audiences than the dull combination of stars in Lakeer or Zameer."

In trade parlance these are spillover products which lost their utility and function at the box office and are being tossed around until a blessed release.

While the future of debutant Ahmed Khan?s Lakeer remains uncertain, long-delayed projects like Kamal?s Zameer and Dilip Shukla?s Police Force are likely to be postponed repeatedly this summer in spite of supposedly saleable stars like Ajay Devgan and Akshay Kumar.

Distributors and audiences can immediately smell a musty product. They?s rather go for Masti than the musty!

Have stars ceased to be the minimum-guarantee factor at the box office? Murder and Mallika Sherawat have certainly annihilated the undue value attatched to star names. It?s now being felt in film circles that major stars are major only when packaged productively.

Ajay Devgan who tempts viewers into theatres in a Mani Ratnam film may not achieve the same in Zameer. Suniel Shetty?s solo starrer Ek Hindustani is a dud being tossed around from Friday to Friday for a year now. But put in combination with Shah Rukh Khan in Main Hoon Na where Shetty plays a grey character, the action star incites great curiosity.

Anil Kapoor on his own no longer generates any audience-value. But in combination with Ram Gopal Varma he?s hot in the June release Jaan-Boojh Kar/Ghalti Se. The breezy romantic musical Uff Kya Jadoo Hai? is hardly being talked about although it has the prestigious Rajshri banner behind it. On the other hand Yash Chopra?s production Hum Tum with Saif Ali Khan and Rani Mukherjee playing warring lovers is one of the most talked-about films this season.

So what does the audience want this summer? "Excitement and thrills, for sure," says ad and feature director Arjun Sablok. "But not in murderous quantities and certainly not in films that use stars as props and invitation cards."

I have a feeling that while the stars provide some interest, the theme/story/presentation of the movie provides much part in a film's success. Indian audiences are not suckers and they are now going to the movies which are atleast different than their predecessors.

Why was Qayamat and Masti a hit - because even though their stories are not much different, they presented it in a different way (atleast to Indians) and used their stars in a very different role. Sunil Shetty killed off in the interval? Ajay Devgan is the hero yet he doesn't appear till half the movie and then doesn't even mouth one word of dialogue? 3 newcomers are the heroes - while Ajay Devgan barely makes an appearance. Sexual content galore, and that too used in ways never b4 seen in bollywood?? Of course the audience would lap it up.

Why did Kismat fail.. while Khakee did well. How come Munnabhai performed better than most other movies??? Perhaps because the latter 2 movies were genuinely entertaining and didn't resort to typical cliched techniques generally used by Indian cinema.

Now that still doesn't excuse some of the other movies from being a hit - Baghban, Andaaz, and Chalte Chalte come to mind. But it seems that the audience expects stories and presentations to take precedence over everything else and they want the actors to be used in different ways.

So basically.. if u follow the trend:

Main Hoon Na - could be a hit... however you have to watch out for the Kal Ho Na Ho backlash that is bound to happen.

Yuva - I have a feeling this will be a hit. Trust me, it will be entertaining while really gritty and the starcast is used in a radically different way. If this movie was released 5 years ago it would have flopped instantly like Dil Se, but watch this to be one of the biggest hits of the year.

Deewar - This will certainly flop. Unless there are some really good action sequences or some powerful dialogue scenes, there is nothing here that hasn't been done b4. And the anti-pak theme is NOT GOING to go well with the audiences.

Ab Tumhare Hawala Watan Saathiyon - See above and this one has an even bigger chance of flopping since its directed by a true-blue racist mo-fo.

Hum Tum - While all signs say this will flop, I have a feeling this will be a big hit. Even though we have seen these types of movies a thousand times b4, the lead pair is VERY FRESH and is currently in the minds of everyone. Saif has emerged literally out of hell to become really popular and this will be the one sure ticket to his superstardom. And Rani is SUPERHOT rite now... If i was a betting man, I'd say this will be an even bigger hit than Main Hoon Na and this will finally be the year where Saif could take over SRK. (and I'm a SRK fanatic!!)

Run - Average at best. If it does moderately well, all praise would go to Bhumika Chawla.

Lakeer - very hard to say. If anybody will walk away from this movie, it'll be Sunil Shetty who seems to be doing well in his hatke roles which are different from one movie to the next. John Abrahams is generally hated and I don't think he'll be appreciated anymore in this typical movie.

LAKSHYA - very weird. I was all set to rule this movie off as a flop but the trailers do indicate that this is an army movie done in a DCH style. Very hip, very modern and extremely stylish. I think this will do well, atleast a hit if not a superhit.

AAN - it will be this year's Awaara Paagal Deewana. The starcast is superhot rite now and the 1-2 punch of the Akshay-Sunil combo would definately cause some interest. Add Shatrughan Sinha's emergence from B-movie hell, Jackie Shroff's turn as a suave villain, and picturesque scenery from both Dubai and Lara Dutta and I think success is pretty much guaranteed. Did I also mention that this is a Mainstream movie written and directed by Madhur Bhandarkar who gave us Chandni Bar and Satta?

All RGV productions are a hit and miss. Some will do well, others will be average but they will all make a profit. None will bomb.


Now some of the movies that might turn out to be hits are:

ELAAN - because the starcast is killer (for a hip new age action movie), Vikram Bhatt will sure rip/off or add some new stylish action sequences and just for the fact that Mithun da is finally coming back as the ULTIMATE BADASS VILLAIN. This movie will be this year's Qayamat.

Raajiv Rai's new movie - trust me... the word is that its better than Gupt and more stylish too. Rai knows how to make a cool action film and audiences might flock it to it big time. This (along with Elaan) will probably make Arjun Rampal.

Mujhse Shaadi Karoge - Akshay Kumar is super popular right now and combine him with Salman Khan in a wacky comedy, this is bound to do atleast Jodi No. 1 numbers.

Swades - this is a very weird SRK movie and its one that has never been attempted b4. Of course it'll be a love story, but remember that this is being directed by Ashutosh Gowariker and it just might end up doing even better than Lagaan. No one knows the storyline but rumours have it that SRK is playing a scientist/astronaut who heads back to rural India and then is troubled by his decision to return home to USA.

the Yash Chopra/Subhash Ghai movies are gamble. In theory you would expect them to be hits, but no one can predict accurately these days. If the directors change with times then yes they can be hits... but KRISHNA would definately be average at best.

Them main concern is that these films are so expensive that even if they recover as much as MBBS did, they will still be classified flops. And you can imagine how many films in a year can cross the performance of MBBS.

It's the cost that is the culprit.

Rana

I know the Indian audience for being stupid (as the most stupid films become hits there), so please forgive me for not giving any prediction about films being hits or flops. But the films (yet to be released) I am looking forward to are:
Yuva
Lakshya
Main Hoon Naa
Bride & Prejudice
Aan (only because of Madhur Bhandarkar )
Swades
Black
& all RGV-productions

And out of curiousity: Yash Chopra's and Subhash Ghai's next.

But let me rent DARNA MANA HAI, KHAKEE, MAIN MADHURI DIXIT BANNA CHAHTI HOON, AB TAK CHAPPAN, MEENAXI and as soon as it will be released on DVD MAQBOOL first.

Well, there is another Biggie releasing on May 7 that I did not include in the opening post as it was not in the list when I posted.

It's
Shaadi Ke Laddoo with a Budget of Rs 18 cr and No Name stars. Distributors will need to recover Rs 17 cr to break even.
Can it??
The film has cartoons and live actor mix.
This is one film I can't predict. Either Rs 4cr (Extremely heavy losses) or if it clicks with Kids then sky is the limit.

Recent 10 Week All India Net Grosses were:

All India Distributor Cost in ( )

Khakee (14.9 cr) 26.5 cr
Ab Tak Chhappan (4.75cr) 7 cr
Kismat (5.75cr) 5 cr
Plan (8.5 cr) 6.5 cr
Janasheen (8.1 cr) 11 cr
KMG (14.35 cr) 40 cr
KHNH (14.5 cr) 32 cr
Munnabhaaii MBBS (7.75 cr) 20 cr
Andaaz (8.25 cr) 22 cr
Baaghbaan (8.25cr) 23 cr
LOC (16 cr) 21 cr
The Hero (17.5 cr) 24 cr

Shadi ke ladoo has really MAZEDAR CLASS ACT music!!Yum Yum!!

But who damn cares for the puny flicks, even and if they have GOOD MUSIC!

Any idea if it's a cartoon and live characters mix or only that it's publicity wallpapers are cartoon and live actor mix??
http://www.indiafm.com/posters/movies/0 ... ndex.shtml


Stills are live actors only.
http://www.indiafm.com/stills/04/shaadi ... ndex.shtml

First Big casualty is going to be Bardaasht that is releasing this Friday??

It has just one week before all theatres rush to screen Main Hoon Na, a week after. No collections if no theatres available. Even if it manages to retain some 'B' theatres in the 2nd week, viewers first choice will be MHN.

No way Bardaasht can recover it's cost, as KISMAT with a similar budget, similar star cast, excellent music and no competition sustained a loss of 40%.

Only thing that can save Bardaasht is if it manages to perform like Munna Bhaaii MBBS. Not likely.

Rana

I'm confused a bit about 'Shaadi Ke Laddoo' film. I don't see this film listted at the site that reported it to have a humongous budget of Rs 18 cr and release date of May 7. Instead, I see Mujh Se Shaadi Karogi listed at that spot, with a budget of 18 cr.??

Anyway, Indiafm poll indicates it to have released today?? They posed a question, which film do you want to see tomorrow?? Well, 75% respondents are voting for a Rs 10 cr film Bardaasht and only 20% voting for a film supposedly with double the budget (Rs 18 crore). Did 'Shaadi Ke Laddoo' fail to generate any hype due to failed publicity or it got released 2 weeks prematurely?? Or, may be, I noted it's budget of Rs 18 cr incorrectly??

BTW, Indiafm gave a glowing review to Bardaasht. But, no matter how good a film Bardaasht and Shhadi Ke Laddoo may turn out and how bad MHN turns out (most likely, it will be an excellent film in my opinion), Bardaasht and Shaadi Ke Laddoo are doomed because of hype for MHN releasing next week.

Rana

AAN will be ANOTHER DISASTER!

DEEWAR might only do WELL..INNER CITIES/Small centres

HUM TUM..depends on time of release looks to me going MDK way!

Situation is clarified by Arsh in thread:
viewtopic.php?t=6534.

BTW, Shaadi Ke Laddoo, advanced to April 23, is stated to be a low budget film and not a Mega Budget Rs 18 crore film that I noted from somewhere. If it indeed is a low budget film, this film should prove profitable.

Rana

[quote="rana"]TEST YOURSELF, IF YOU CAN FEEL THE PULSE OF INDIAN FILM GOING AUDIENCE:

Predict outcome of following big budget films:

(EAIDC = Estimated All India Distributor Cost)
(?Predict 10 Week Net Gross? to be compared against Boxoffice India figures)
10 Week Net Gross should be 1.5 times EAIDC for distributors to break even

April 23, 04 Bardaasht *ing Bobby Deol, Lara Dutta
Budget 10cr EAIDC 6cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 7cr

April 30, 04 Main Hoon Na *ing SRK, Sush Sen, Amrita Rao
Budget 20cr EAIDC 12cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 20cr

June 18, 04 Lakshya *ing Amitabh, Hritik, Preity
Budget 30cr EAIDC 18cr Predict 10 Week Net Gross = 14cr


-----------------------------------

Recent 10 Week All India Net Grosses were:

All India Distributor Cost in ( )

Khakee (14.9 cr) 26.5 cr
Ab Tak Chhappan (4.75cr) 7 cr
Kismat (5.75cr) 5 cr
Plan (8.5 cr) 6.5 cr
Janasheen (8.1 cr) 11 cr
KMG (14.35 cr) 40 cr
KHNH (14.5 cr) 32 cr
Munnabhaaii MBBS (7.75 cr) 20 cr
Andaaz (8.25 cr) 22 cr
Baaghbaan (8.25cr) 23 cr
LOC (16 cr) 21 cr
The Hero (17.5 cr) 24 cr
--------------------

Barrdaasht has released and collections are dismal. Not even as much as I estinmated for its loosing scope.

Box Office India has given All India Distributor's costs and perspective for MHN and Lakshya:

http://www.boxofficeindia.com/

MHN with a budget of Rs 20 cr has an All India Distributor Cost of Rs 16 cr (I had estimated Rs 12 cr) and will need to recover Rs 40 cr net gross from theatres to be a Hit (Rs 23 cr to break even or 'Average'). Not even KHNH achieved that. Only KMG has done so in the recent past. Still it's expected to achieve this target easily.

Lakshya has been sold for the same Rs 16 cr (I had estimated Rs 18 cr)even though it's budget was 1.5 times that of MHN. This film too needs Rs 40 cr net gross to be declared a hit (Rs 23 cr to break even or 'Average'). It's BO performance is a question mark, despite AB, Hritik and Preity.

Excerpts from Box Office India:

Main Hoon Na- The total All India cost for distributors is around 16 crore including print and publicity..That means a 30 crore distributors share(40 crore+ net gross) is needed for Hit status.The biggest pluses are its hit music,excellent publicity and Shahrukh Khan.The negative side is Farah Khan as director and the supporting cast which is fairly weak.The advance plans opened today to an excellent response and it is widely expected in the trade that the film will cross the first week record of Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham set in 2001.But on the whole the trade is not too sure about the directorial capabilities of Farah Khan to expect the film to be an outright winner though due to the initial the film seems set to be coverage at worst.

Prediction-Biggest Grosser of the year until the release of Yashraj's untitled venture and Ab Tumhare Hawale Watan Saathiyo.


Lakshya- The film also has an All India cost of around 16 crore(Mumbai and Delhi/UP have not been sold but taking into account the price of other circuits the cost works out to be 16 crore).This film will also have to give a 30 crore distributor share and 40 crore+ net gross to achieve hit status.The positives here are a grand cast in Hrithik Roshan,Preity Zinta and Amitabh Bachchan but it stops there.Looking at it from a trade point of view there are no other positives.The music does not seem to be like that of Main Hoon Na that the masses will take to it.But the biggest fear is treatment by the director.The fear is that the film has been made for a niche audience when the budget requires a universal audience.The question in the trade is can Farhan Akhtar made a 30 crore Lakshya work when his 10 crore Dil Chahta Hai failed in most circuits.Although there is lot of hype for the film the trade will be shocked if this becomes a hit all over.

Prediction-Possibility of losing in many circuits due to high price.